Left-leaning Castro gets major boost in Honduras presidential race

Honduras’ November 28 presidential election has taken a left turn with the no. 3 contender Salvador Nasralla ending his campaign and throwing his support behind the current runner-up, Xiomara Castro.

“Nasralla's support for Xiomara Castro is significant, and could very well swing the election and bring about dramatic changes to Honduran policy,” Benjamin Geden, deputy director for The Wilson Center’s Latin American Program, told BNamericas.

In a September 30 Paradigma poll, the most recent presidential poll of note, Nasry Asfura, candidate for the right-wing National Party (PNH), came out top with 22.7% of preferences versus Castro’s 18.7% and Nasralla’s 10.1%, though 40.3% of voters remained undecided.

Populist-leaning Nasralla announced the end of his campaign Wednesday with poll numbers slipping in September to back Castro, who is running with the Liberty and Refounding Party (Libre).

Castro, aged 62, is a self-described democratic socialist whose husband Manuel Zelaya was deposed as president by a coup in 2009.

Nasralla brings the support of the PSH – the party he founded known also as the Salvador Party or sometimes translated to the Savior of Honduras Party (PSH), and two smaller parties, Innovation and Social Unity, also came out in support of Castro after Nasralla’s announcement. 

Pictured with Nasralla announcing the new pact, Castro said, “We are going to build a participatory democracy and together ... we are going to develop an agenda built with the different sectors of this country’s workers, peasants, unions and private companies.” 

Honduras’ presidential election is single-round, with the candidate receiving the most votes declared winner. 

BACK AND FORTH

Asfura has held a slim lead over Castro throughout the campaign under the banner of the PNH – the party of current President Juan Orlando Hernández.

Hernández first came to power in 2013, beating Castro – his top contender in the race.

He won re-election in 2017 in a heavily contested and controversial election, that time declaring victory against runner-up Nasralla. It was Castro backing down in 2017 to throw her support behind Nasralla.

Next month’s winner will face a complicated scenario, including violence and corruption and a relationship with the US that has been strained by waves of migrants fleeing the Central American nation in recent years.

“As it is, Honduras is a problematic partner for the United States,” said Geden. “Its president is suspected of drug trafficking, and his last election was widely regarded as fraudulent.” 

“That said, Xiomara's election could complicate US cooperation in Honduras in many areas, including on migration, and likely bring an end to Honduras's diplomatic ties to Taiwan,” he added.

“In the meantime, the sudden strength of her candidacy increases the possibility of electoral fraud, and the chances of social unrest in a highly divided, violent country,” said Geden.

Geden said Castro’s surge in support could increase the temptation for the National Party to manipulate the election, adding, “The stakes are particularly high for the president, who would face legal peril at home and abroad should the opposition win.”

PROMISES 

In addition to shifting ties from Taiwan to China, Castro has also promised to hold a referendum on rewriting the constitution and to establish a UN-backed anti-corruption body, similar to Guatemala’s former CICIG entity.

With respect to the constitution, Geden said, “Greater efforts to address poverty and inequality are desperately needed in Honduras. But that would be hard to achieve should Castro pursue dramatic changes, provoking social unrest and alienating a divided congress.

“After all, it was proposed constitutional reforms that led to the 2009 coup d'état that deposed Castro's husband,” he added.

FIRST FEMALE LEADER? 

A Castro victory would also mean Honduras has its first female president.

“That milestone would be welcome,” said Geden. “It is always encouraging to see female leaders in Latin America, and it is important not to regard female leaders as simply proxies for their husbands. 

“Unfortunately, it is hard to imagine that a Xiomara Castro presidency would help unite Hondurans, or reassure the foreign investors whose confidence is critical to Honduras' post-pandemic recovery,” said Geden.

Castro has been meeting with business groups in recent weeks, attempting to reach out to the private sector, which has traditionally lent support to the PNH, though her focus appears to center around SMEs.

“I want a social pact with every sector, the productive sectors, with business, with workers, with teachers, with farmers and campesinos [peasants], with the informal economy and small and medium-sized businesses,” said Castro early in her campaign.

TIME FOR A CHANGE?

Pedro Barquero, campaign director for the PSH, supported Nasralla’s decision in an interview with local news outlet Proceso, saying Honduras needs a change.

By joining forces, he added, he believes they will have the support of between 70% and 80% of likely voters, adding the country is experiencing political fatigue from Hernández and the PNH.

“The Honduran people no longer want to know anything about the National Party, about any of its candidates, that’s something they’re asking for out there on the streets, it’s a very powerful and very marked feeling," said Barquero.

PNH central committee member and a candidate for the central district mayor, David Chávez, said the Castro-Nasralla alliance would move the country towards socialism.

“This is about the best person governing the country, because the president governs for the entire Honduran people,” Chávez said, according to local paper El Heraldo, citing the Tegucigalpa to Olancho highway project as one of Castro’s past failures. 

He added, “We don’t want to go back to 21^st century socialism, led by [late Venezuelan president] Hugo Chávez … Her plan of action would see the poor even poorer [and] private investment would have no certainty with [Nasralla and Castro], because they are used to bulldozing [business] with power.”