Lula remains firm presidential frontrunner

Former Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva continues as the frontrunner for October's presidential elections, while centrist candidates have failed to gain ground.

The charismatic leftist leader, who ruled the country from 2003-11, has the support of 33.4% of prospective voters, according to the latest survey from the MDA polling institute, published by the national transport confederation (CNT).

Lula enjoys strong popularity as his government managed to combine robust economic growth with significant poverty reduction. Both the economy and public finances benefitted from high commodities prices when Lula was in power.

However, the advance of his candidacy faces huge challenges on the legal front as he could soon be arrested.

Lula was sentenced last year for his alleged role in a corruption and money laundering scheme, and the MDA survey was conducted only a few days after the conviction was upheld by an appeals court.

The sentence was meted out by lower court judge Sergio Moro regarding approximately 3.7mn reais (US$1.16mn) in illegal benefits the former president is said to have received from engineering company OAS. The firm reportedly spent that sum refurbishing a beachfront apartment for Lula in return for contracts with state-run oil company Petrobras.

Earlier this year, three appeal court judges not only upheld Lula's conviction but also increased his original sentence of nine years and six months to 12 years and one month.

The Lula defense team has appealed the ruling and requested voting clarification from each of the three judges. That means Lula's legal process may now move to a superior court or even the supreme court.

Lula's lawyers recently filed a preventive habeas corpus to prevent his arrest before the end of the appeals process, which could take years. However, a high court refused this request late Tuesday, making it possible that he could be arrested in the near term.

Due to the fact that Lula has already announced his intention to run in the October election, his case must also be reviewed by the country's electoral court, which will decide if his candidacy can move forward.

THE MAIN RIVALS

Controversial ultra-rightwing lawmaker Jair Bolsonaro obtained 16.8% of the potential votes in the MDA survey, while former environment minister Marina Silva came in third with 7.8% of support.

Bolsonaro and Silva have also confirmed their intention to run in the upcoming elections.

The deadline for political parties to register their candidates is August 15 and official campaigning starts the following day. The first round of the election will take place on October 7 and a potential second round would be held October 28.

"It's too early to evaluate the political scenario since the real campaign will take place from August and only then will we have a clearer scenario to evaluate," Luciano Rostagno, chief Latin America strategist at Banco Mizuho, told BNamericas.

CENTRIST CANDIDATES WELL BEHIND

Centrist candidates advocating for fiscal reforms and more market-friendly measures have so far failed to garner significant support.

Geraldo Alkmin, governor of São Paulo state and a member of the PSDB party, obtained 6.4% voter support in the MDA survey, while President Michel Temer received only 0.9%. Amid speculation that he may run, Temer has said he has no such plans.

Temer is a member of the MDB, which is the country's largest party in terms of lawmakers. From the small and centrist PSD party, finance minister Henrique Meirelles has indicated he may make a run, but he was not included in the survey.

"If polls in August, September, show centrist candidates with no chances of being elected, investors will become very nervous and we will begin to see this hurting asset prices," said Rostagno.