Matthew menaces Haiti and Cuba, heads to Bahamas, may make close Florida bypass

PRESS RELEASE

By AIR Worldwide

October 5

BOSTON, Oct. 5, 2016 - According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, yesterday, Matthew made landfall on Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula as a Category 4 hurricane at 7:20 a.m. ET, where it tore roofs off homes, washed out a major bridge, caused roads to be impassable, and cut off telephone communications. It also downed banana and mango trees, a devastating hit to a source of food and income. At least 11 deaths were reported there, but that number is expected to increase and the extent of the damage become better known when lines of communication are restored. Matthew then headed to the eastern tip of Cuba, which is sparsely populated, making landfall there yesterday evening as a slightly weaker Category 4 hurricane. The small town of Baracoa was hit with 20-foot waves, strong winds, and rain-induced flooding, but reports of damage in Cuba are unavailable.

"After encountering Cuba's mountainous terrain, Matthew weakened a bit but is expected to re-intensify as it heads to the Bahamas because it will be moving over water with surface temperatures of 29° to 30° Celsius and through an area of low wind shear," said Scott Stransky, assistant vice president and principal scientist at AIR Worldwide. "Matthew is now moving northwestward, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which should steer the storm through the Bahamas, where it is expected to bring impacts similar to the ones that devastated Haiti and Cuba. There is the potential for 1 foot or more of rain to fall on parts of the Bahamas, in addition to a storm surge potential of 10-15 feet. Consequently, significant inundation is likely in some communities."

According to AIR, Caribbean residential building stock is dependent on exposure location-urban or rural-within an island, and regional differences. Older urban structures across the Caribbean exhibit a wide variety of construction materials, but the majority of new residential buildings are made of masonry, reinforced concrete, or both. There are diverse roofing practices across the Caribbean, with the most common type for residential structures being timber with metal roof covering, applied with corrugated or standing seam.

Most commercial structures in the Caribbean are low- to mid-rise, comprising one to six stories. Small apartments, hotels, offices, and other low-rise commercial properties are usually masonry, or reinforced or block concrete. As with residential buildings, there is regional variability.

The majority of construction in the Bahamas is reinforced masonry, with the rest wood frame, unreinforced masonry, reinforced concrete, steel, and light metal. In Nassau and Freeport parts of the Bahamas likely to see major impacts from Matthew there are numerous high-value resorts. The Bahamas has a comprehensive building code, the Bahamas Building Code, which was initially based on the rigid South Florida Building Code and has since been updated to follow the ASCE 7 standards. Moreover the Bahamas Building Code accounts for wind loading up to 150 mph on various engineered structures; this code is strictly enforced.

Stransky concluded, "Matthew is forecast to come near the east coast of Florida, if not make landfall there, within the next 48 hours, after which it is expected at this time to continue moving north, hugging the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas on its way."

Florida's governor has declared a state of emergency for all of Florida. Brevard County has made a mandatory evacuation order for residents of Merritt Island and other barrier islands starting at 3 p.m. today. Port Canaveral is under a total evacuation order, and Canaveral Harbor will be closed this afternoon. A hurricane watch is in effect from Sebastian Inlet up to the Volusia/Brevard County line.

Georgia's governor has declared a state of emergency for 13 coastal counties. South Carolina's governor has declared a state of emergency there and said that coastal evacuations would begin today, potentially affecting 1 million people. Traffic is heavy in the area impacted, and lane reversals on some highways are in effect. Schools and government offices in 25 South Carolina counties are closed today. North Carolina's governor has declared a state of emergency for more than 50 counties, and there is a mandatory evacuation order for Ocracoke Island in effect.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has sent personnel and supplies to all four states, and President Obama is meeting with FEMA officials coordinating the response to Matthew at the agency's headquarters in Washington, D.C.

AIR will monitor the situation and will provide updates as warranted.

(Pictured: People try to cross the overflowing La Rouyonne river in the commune of Leogane, south of Port-au-Prince)