Matthew set to wreak havoc in Florida after battering Bahamas

UPDATE Friday 8:30 a.m. EDT: The death toll for Hurricane Matthew rose overnight to 276, almost all from Haiti, but there were also five fatalities in the Dominican Republic and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The United Nations reported Thursday that emergency teams in Haiti would also be watching carefully for cholera outbreaks as the impoverished nation still reeling from the 2010 earthquake is again hit by natural disaster.

Overnight, the large, still-powerful storm slowed some in sustained winds overnight, which are now at 120 mph. The northwest quadrant of the eyewall is driving northward hugging the Florida coastline close to Daytona, and the core of the storm is only 10-20 miles off of shore. Matthew's size and strength will combine with geography to bring the most serious storm surge north to Georgia where estimates of 10+" of rain are combining with 11' storm surge predictions to produce dangerous and widespread flooding. The current track shows it will near Charleston, South Carolina, as a hurricane Saturday before possibly looping back southward and back at Florida later next week as a much weaker system.

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Forecasters deepened concerns Thursday for local officials, residents and insurers with the 11am (Florida time) report on Hurricane Matthew, saying the tempest was indeed gaining strength as it bore down on the US coastline.

Risk intelligence firm Artemis suggested the impact could have a strong impact on the sector, noting, "Hurricane Matthew has the potential to trigger outstanding catastrophe bonds and other ILS [insurance linked securities] structures, based on latest forecasts."

Live videos of the storm brutally raking the Bahamas filled the airwaves Thursday, as TV forecasters described Matthew's intensification on its way to the Atlantic Florida coastline, with a possible landfall or at least close call as the storm track from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows it running roughly parallel to the coast for some 200 miles (320km).

At the time of the latest update, Matthew was again a powerful category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale with 140 mph winds after having slowed when interacting with higher elevations passing Cuba Wednesday.

The NHC reported the would be just off the shore from Florida's Cape Canaveral space center, packing sustained winds of 145 mph by 11am Friday, with hurricane-speed winds extending over several significant population centers.

From there it looks to follow the coast northward to Jacksonville, Florida and up into Georgia and South Carolina, potentially generating catastrophic effects from extreme rainfall, storm surge and damaging winds. For now, the trajectory of the storm looks to begin to veer east away from the coast by Saturday morning as a weaker, but still significant, hurricane.

Urgent warnings from federal, state and local officials Thursday filed in over the morning as images of the devastation left in Matthew's wake in Haiti and elsewhere emerged. The potential insured losses that could emerge from the storm vary widely, but seem likely to be in the multi-billion dollar territory.

Ben Brookes, head of the capital markets team at risk modeling firm RMS told, Artemis the potential impacts were broad and still uncertain depending on how the storm could wobble or shift through Saturday.

"If Matthew makes landfall in a densely populated area, or closely skirts the Florida coastline around Cape Canaveral through to Jacksonville, we could still be looking at losses that would rival anything in recent history. But that's a big if."

According to Artemis, "under any of the more severe modeled forecasts for Matthew the ILS market and catastrophe bonds come into play, with potential industry losses above US$10bn."

A report from Insurance Journal said analysts are seeing damage triggering US$10-15bn along the US southeastern coast, not including the impacts on affected Caribbean nations, such as the Bahamas, Jamaica and Haiti.

Mary Bohenek, from risk modeler AIR Worldwide, told BNamericas estimated insurance losses should be available early next week.