Mexico Watch: AMLO still leads, Nafta May talks

AMLO holds post-debate lead

Mexican leftist presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) appears to have kept his solid lead in the race, following the first official televised debate April 22, with two polls giving the leader of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party a double-digit lead in voter preference.

A poll from Mexican daily Reforma and Grupo Radio Centro conducted between April 26 and 30 gave AMLO 48% voter preference, unchanged from its pre-debate survey, followed by Ricardo Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC) with 30% - up from 26% a week before - and the ruling party (PRI) candidate José Antonio Meade with 17%, falling 1% from the previous poll, and 5% went to the two independent candidates.

(Pictured: AMLO participates in Morena rally.)

The survey noted that 18% of those contacted gave no answer to the question and are not included in the comparison.

A México-Elige-SDPnoticias poll conducted April 29 with a larger sample showed AMLO with a narrower lead, ahead with 41.4% against Anaya's 24.7%, followed by Meade with 22.2%. That group's previous poll ahead of the debate had Meade up over Anaya 22.7% to 19.7%, indicating some of the electorate may have moved towards Anaya with the debate. AMLO lost some small ground in the comparison, falling from 41.9%.

Nafta 2.0 in May?

With Nafta talks set to restart Monday, May 7, for a 15-day stint of intense discussions, it remains unclear whether the US will indeed budge on key areas, most importantly the rules of origin, to create a breakthrough.

In a televised interview Thursday morning, the US' outgoing Mexico ambassador, Roberta Jacobson, expressed hope that an agreement would be reached in May.

"I'm always optimistic. I believe with the will of all parties and countries, it can be done," said Jacobson on Televisa. "I think everyone wants us to have this new treaty, and I do believe it is possible, difficult but possible."

Jacobson also spoke to the troubled relationship between US President Donald Trump and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, saying there have been "worse moments" between leaders from the two countries than now and that Trump has expressed his respect for Peña Nieto, though acknowledging a certain amount of damage from Trump's occasionally vitriolic Tweets against Mexico and the Mexican people.

With Mexico's general election less than two months away and congress officially out of session, it now appears the next congress would be tasked to pass any agreement on the deal, and Republicans in the US face a difficult test to hold onto power in mid-term elections in November, as the window closes on certain ratification there with each passing week.

In the private sector, Juan Pablo Castañon, head of major Mexican business chamber (CCE) - a close participant to Nafta negotiations representing business interest in the country - said of the 15-day window of upcoming talks that the group sees "a closing scenario" emerging.

"We are still on a path to closing [a deal], but to achieve it the US will have to adopt a more flexible posture," said Castañon, as reported in local daily El Universal.