Mexico watch: Nafta 2.0, election update

In an interview on Televisa television Monday morning, Mexico's economy minister Ildefonso Guajardo (pictured) confirmed that Nafta 2.0 negotiations have entered a phase of "non-stop talks" to reach a deal in principle. However, no deal is expected to be announced at the upcoming Summit of the Americas in Lima, Peru.

Bilateral and trilateral meetings held in Washington, DC, marked a clear intensification in discussions, and some hope emerged that a deal might be ready for Lima; nevertheless, Guajardo said that a final deal was still "weeks away," adding that there was an 80% chance something would be ready by May 1.

Guajardo confirmed that a "technical round" of talks had begun Monday and would likely end around April 16, and that with negotiators posted in Washington, DC, discussions are now held incessantly.

The minister recognized that all parties are aware of Mexico's political reality ahead of July's general elections. Attendance has been low this session with many legislators busy with their own political campaigns, and while a special session could still be announced, the current one technically ends April 30.

"If we don't come to an agreement ... no later than the first week of May ... then already the time that would be necessary for the authorities to send something to congress would not be enough to approve this agreement with the current congress, it would be the next congress [in September]."

Polls and televised debate

Recent polls continue to have leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) in the lead.

An El Universal poll conducted April 3-5, showed AMLO (Morena party) with 34.6% of voter preference, ahead of Ricardo Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC) with 25.6%, José Antonio Meade (PRI-PVEM-Panal) with 18.1% and Margarita Zavala (independent) with 4.2%.

The poll indicated 8.8% would vote for 'another candidate/none,' and another 8.2% said they were undecided.

Election officials have confirmed the first televised debate with the top four candidates for April 22. Such debates, particularly in the last two presidential elections, have been key in clarifying voter preferences, and should AMLO retain a solid position after the debate, his momentum would be exceedingly difficult to break until election day.

The election commission (INE) added there would be a second debate on May 20 and a final one on June 12.