Molybdenum market to see a "paramount change" between 2015-17, expert says

The molybdenum market will probably see a slight surplus for this year and next, though it will not be significant enough to move the price from current levels, Pablo Bascur, founder and CEO of Chilean molybdenum consulting company MolyExp, told BNamericas. That said, Bascur sees complicated times starting between 2015 and 2017. "I see a paramount change in the market in the next three or four years," the expert said. China, now the world's largest molybdenum consumer, has been heavily developing its local industry. Meanwhile, several copper projects that will produce molybdenum as a byproduct are gearing up to come on line in the near future, setting the stage for a significant surplus in the West. According to Bascur, the thing to watch on the supply side of the equation is how China's generally higher cost producers respond to the flood of molybdenum to come from operations in the rest of the world. Specifically, "will the Chinese import at the cost of halting their expansions and stopping their primary mines, or not?" The first of a two-part interview with Pablo Bascur will be published in this Friday's Metals Perspectives, for subscribers only.