NEW - February Political Risk Report

In Argentina, President Javier Milei’s credibility has taken a hit after endorsing the cryptocurrency $Libra, which crashed hours later, causing US$100 million in investor losses. Opposition parties have filed for impeachment, though it is unlikely to succeed. The scandal overshadowed a record-low inflation rate of 2.2% in January. Meanwhile, IMF negotiations are ongoing for US$8 billion in fresh funds and a 30% peso devaluation.

Mexican leader Claudia Sheinbaum successfully negotiated a one-month delay on Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexican exports, seen as a personal diplomatic win. However, uncertainty remains as 80% of Mexican exports go to the U.S., making a trade war a serious risk. Sheinbaum also introduced energy reforms to expand private sector participation in renewables and oil production, reversing the nationalistic stance of her predecessor AMLO.

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U.S. tariff increases on steel, aluminum, and ethanol threaten Brazil’s economy. President Lula da Silva may file a WTO complaint or impose retaliatory tariffs. Analysts believe Brazil could benefit in the long term by diversifying trade towards China, India, and the EU.

Chilean president Gabriel Boric saw a 6% approval boost after pension reform cleared Congress, marking the biggest overhaul since 1981. However, rising unemployment remains a concern. Meanwhile, former President Michelle Bachelet is under pressure to run in the November election.

In Colombia, violence has escalated in Catatumbo and Cauca, with armed groups forcing mass displacements and child recruitment rising by 1,005% in four years. President Petro’s “Total Peace” plan is collapsing as negotiations with the ELN fail.

In Peru, new Finance Minister José Salardi seeks to unlock US$3 billion in infrastructure projects and reform public-private partnerships to restore economic stability.

Finally, Ecuador's polarized election between President Noboa and opposition leader Luisa González is marred by rising violence, including assassinations by organized crime groups.