One wall goes up, another comes down: Trump and Cuba

The historic resumption of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba in 2015, strongly led by outgoing US president Barack Obama, heralded the beginning of the end of the 57-year freeze between the two countries.

What can we expect under president-elect Donald Trump?

Now that the political ice has been broken, the "businessman" Trump is likely to pursue commercial deals with Cuba, said Emilio Morales, president and CEO at The Havana Consulting Group. "Now is his chance to show off his abilities and break down the wall between the two countries."

For Cuba, bolstering its budding relationship with its northerly neighbor and its markets is an essential strategy for improving economic growth. Now is Cuba's chance to open its economy, attract financial capital and create employment, Morales told BNamericas, noting that support from old allies such as Venezuela, China and Russia is waning.

It may seem like a win-win situation, but Trump will still have to find political backing at home if he is to fully lift the US trade embargo on Cuba. And for that, Cuba's demonstration of its own readiness to move toward an open market is crucial.

A first step could be the approval of a new law to allow small and medium-sized businesses to operate in Cuba, followed by a new electoral law which could make some room for Cuba's moderate political opposition in the national assembly.

"This second signal will allow Trump to convince congress to lift the embargo, but that will happen once (Cuban president) Raúl Castro leaves office in 2018," said Morales. "Trump has enough time to work on a successful strategy."

In any case, we are unlikely to see the new US administration renege on the advances made under Obama – the new US embassy in Cuba, the allowance of remittances and flights to Cuba. But unless the Caribbean nation shows decision in moving away from its political past, further advances are unlikely.