ONS: June should end with low inflows in almost all subsystems

By National System Operator (ONS)

June 14, 2024

This is a machine translation of the press release originally published in Portuguese.

The Monthly Operation Program (PMO) bulletin for the operating week between June 15th and 21st estimates that the Affluent Natural Energy (ENA) at the end of the month will be below the Long Term Average (MLT) in three subsystems. The exception is the South, which must register 110% of the MLT. The ENA projected for the Southeast/Central-West and the North is the same: 54% of the MLT. For the Northeast, the indication is 38% of the MLT. The ONS has been following ENA projections and warning about the low turnout that has been recorded in almost all of Brazil.

The prospects for Stored Energy (EAR) remain compatible with the typically dry period currently underway. All subsystems of the National Interconnected System (SIN) should end the month with rates above 65%, a forecast that has been maintained in all June reviews. The highest percentages of EAR expected on June 30 are in the North (88.6%) and South (81.1%), followed by the Southeast/Central-West (67.6%) and the Northeast (67.5 %).

The Marginal Operating Cost (CMO) is R$ 18.01, in all subsystems. Which represents a reduction compared to R$ 18.11 the previous week.

The prospective scenarios for cargo maintain the behavior disclosed in previous reviews, with expansion expected in the SIN and in all regions. For SIN, the acceleration should reach 4.2% (74,399 MWmed). The North submarket once again has the possibility of more significant growth: 8.8% (7,725 MWMed). Following are the Northeast, with 4.3% (12,451 MWmed); Southeast/Central-West, with 3.8% (41,648 MWmed); and the South, with 3.1% (12,575 MWmed). The numbers are comparisons between estimates for June 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023.

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