ONS releases the results of the study on the planning of operations for the electricity sector until 2029

By ONS

December 27, 2024

This is a machine translation of the press release originally published in Portuguese.

The National Electric System Operator (ONS) released on its website this Friday (27) the results of the Executive Summary of the Medium-Term Electric Operation Plan of the National Interconnected System - PAR/PEL 2024 for the horizon from 2025 to 2029. The set of works indicated in the 2025-2029 cycle includes approximately 1,260 km of new transmission lines, in addition to 14,750 MVA of new transformers in new and existing substations. The estimated investments for these works are R$ 7.6 billion, of which R$ 5.8 billion are new projects.

The expansion of the exchange limits between the subsystems is one of the points highlighted in the study. The export capacity from the North/Northeast regions to the Southeast/Central-West regions, during the system's peak period, could increase by 30% by the end of 2029, going from 15,600 MW, estimated for January 2025, to 20,500 MW. The export capacity from the Southeast/Central-West to the South should increase by approximately 20%, in the same period: from 10,500 MW (January 2025) to 12,500 MW (December 2029). The increase in exchange capacity is a positive factor for greater use of non-hydro renewable generation available in the Northeast region.

The PAR/PEL 2024 Executive Summary also addresses one of the main transformations in the planning and operation of the SIN: the increase in the participation of Micro and Mini Distributed Generation (MMGD). The installed capacity of MMGD surpasses the 33 GW mark in 2024 and is projected to reach more than 49 GW in 2029, which will consolidate it as the second largest source of generation in the country. The expansion of MMGD imposes considerable challenges on the operation of the electrical system, among which the need for greater operational flexibility, management of constraints in the transmission network and support for the dynamic performance of the system stand out.

The document also highlights the impact of MMGD on the SIN net load curve, on the loading of boundary transformations and the associated challenges. The study indicates the number of substations that present the possibility of reverse flow of active power. One of the main conclusions in this scenario of expansion of generation directly connected to the distribution networks is the need for distributors to assume a more active role, acting as distribution system operators (DSOs) and in a coordinated manner with the ONS. This action is essential to guarantee the efficiency and safety of the SIN operation in a context of increasing decentralization of generation resources.

The main figures presented indicate that the forecast for maximum load demand for the SIN in 2029 is 120 GW, an increase of 12% compared to that seen in 2024. The installed generation capacity is expected to reach 251.6 GW in December 2028, with 57.6 GW from centralized wind and solar photovoltaic plants. The prospect of an acceleration in energy demand, caused by the expansion of segments such as Green Hydrogen and Data Centers, brings challenges for the SEB, as well as opportunities. The profile of the national electricity matrix, with approximately 90% of its energy generated by renewable sources, has made the country attractive for the installation of Data Center projects used in Artificial Intelligence services, for example. The projects present a constant and high consumption profile at all times and days, and investors have expressed interest in connecting to the system in the PAR/PEL 2024 horizon.

The study provides, in a preliminary manner, a list of actions necessary to meet the initial integration demands, highlighting the need for improvements throughout the process of connecting large blocks of cargo, to support the safety and efficiency of the system in the face of the rapid transformations underway.

About PAR/PEL

The SIN Medium-Term Electric Operation Plan – PAR/PEL aims to assess the performance of the SIN over a five-year period, so that future operations are carried out with adequate levels of safety and in compliance with the reliability criteria established in the Grid Procedures. The plan contains the indications of works required to fully meet demand, integrate new generating plants and ensure the operation of the electric sector in the medium term.

The Executive Summary of PAR/PEL 2024 is available on the ONS website, in the “ Energy in the Future - Electricity Supply ” section.