Pemex crude oil exports fall, but refining output rises

Exports of crude oil by Mexico’s national oil company Pemex have fallen sharply in 2024 as the firm's upstream production slumps and it sends more oil to its own refineries.

According to data released by the company Tuesday, Pemex exported 831,000b/d of crude in October, a drop of 21% from the same month last year.

So far in 2024, monthly crude oil exports from Pemex have averaged 792,000b/d, compared to 1.03Mb/d (million barrels per day) in all of 2023.

Pemex's output of crude oil and condensates, including at fields where it produces alongside private partners, has fallen almost 8% to 1.7Mb/d.

Exports of crude to the Americas, primarily refineries in the US, have declined most. In 2024, Pemex has exported on average 468,000b/d to the US, down 35% from a monthly average of 720,000b/d in 2023.

In October this year, crude exports to the Americas were just 419,000b/d.

The value of Pemex's total crude exports slumped 35% from US$2.6bn in October 2023 to US$1.7bn last month, partly as a result of lower crude prices. The value of the company’s crude exports to the Americas fell by more than half.

Crude exports 1Q23-3Q24. Source: Pemex

Crude exports to the Americas 1Q23-3Q24. Source: Pemex

Self-sufficiency

President Claudia Sheinbaum has maintained her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s policy of achieving self-sufficiency in fuels.

Reflecting that commitment, Pemex's production of refined products in October was up 21% to 864,000b/d. 

Between October 2023 and 2024, gasoline output has risen by 53% from 167,000b/d, close to what’s needed for self-sufficiency.

If crude oil output continues to remain low while refining capacity keeps rising, Mexico may need to start importing crude oil by the end of the decade, according to analysts.