Peru copper exports flat in February

Peru's copper exports contracted 0.4% in February to US$1.87bn compared to the same month last year as the initial 10% tariffs imposed on China by the US amid the trade war took effect.

In January, copper exports grew 48% to US$2.13bn compared to the same month 2024 and as a result the figure for the first two months was up on the same period last year. Of the January amount, sales to China accounted for US$1.65bn, up 47.5%.

According to a report from the foreign trade ministry, copper exports to China totaled US$2.95bn in the first two month, which means exports to China must have totaled around US$1.3bn in February, flat compared with US$1.33bn in February 2024.

Iron ore exports to China in January and February fell 23.2% to US$293mn compared with the same period 2024. Meanwhile, molybdenum sales to China doubled in the period to US$77mn.

Chronology

On February 4, Trump announced an initial 10% tariff on Chinese imports.

Analysts expect further declines in Peru's main exports. Given that the vast majority of Chinese exports to the US are technological products – around US$126bn in 2024, according to foreign trade portal Trade Map – any drop in sales could mean lower copper exports from Peru.

Trump has since raised the tariffs on Chinese imports to 145% amid the ongoing trade turmoil.

While the future of the dispute is uncertain, the impact on emerging economies is already beginning to be seen. During the first trade war between the two powers in 2018-19, Peru's GDP growth fell from 4% to 2%.