Peruvian copper production underperforming govt forecast

Peru's copper production saw another year-on-year drop in October, making it unlikely that the government forecast of 2.8-2.9Mt output for the year will be met or even the 2.76Mt reported in 2023 will be matched.

Production in October reached 236,797t, putting the figure for the first 10 months of the year at 2.23Mt, down 0.7% from the same period last year, according to a report from the energy and mines ministry (Minem).

Output has been lower throughout most of the year, with the exception of increases in February and August (see table), leading Minem to reduce its initial forecast for total annual production to a 2.8-2.9Mt at end-August from 3Mt previously.

Month	2023	2024
January	208,000t	205,000t
February	192,000t	217,000t
March	219,000t	219,000t
April	222,000t	204,000t
May	235,000t	232,000t
June	242,000t	214,000t
July	230,000t	224,000t
August	223,000t	247,000t
September	235,000t	232,000t
October	240,000t	237,000t
Total	2,246,000t	2,231,000t

Source: Minem

According to Minem data, average monthly production in January-October was 223,000t. If that level is maintained in November and December, 2024 will end with total output of 2.68Mt. To reach the lower range of the government's projection, monthly production would have to be more than 284,000t, a figure well above the highest levels recorded this year.

The major companies  

The big mining companies have reported varying performances in terms of copper production. For example, Cerro Verde, controlled by US giant Freeport McMoRan, has seen both monthly and cumulative drops in output this year but it remains the biggest producer in the country, churning out 374,779t of the red metal in the first 10 months of the year.

Next was Antamina, which reported production of 366,821t in January-October, up 5.3% year-on-year, while Southern Copper's output was 351,483t, rising 15.7%.

Las Bambas, controlled by Chinese group MMG, moved back into fourth place, jumping ahead of Anglo American's Quellaveco. According to Minem, Las Bambas' production in October was up 37% to 38,548t, the highest monthly figure among all the mining companies, while output for January-October climbed 1.8% to 253,854t.

Meanwhile, Quellaveco's production increased 10.3% to 27,886t in October, but output for January and October was down 2.7% to 243,967t.