Private infrastructure investment in Brazil forecast to hit US$62bn in 2025-29

Private investment in Brazilian infrastructure is projected to amount to 372bn reais (US$62bn) for 2025-29, according to sector association Abdib.

The estimate, along with other investment data for 2024 and details of several public and private programs and concessions, is contained in the Infrastructure Blue Book (Livro Azul da Infraestrutura), a 335-page report published annually by Abdib.

The investments are mainly via concessions and PPPs awarded since 2020, as well as those being auctioned and those expected for the coming years in the three levels of government: federal, state and municipal.

Of the total projected until 2029, more than 220bn reais are expected for transportation/logistics, followed by water and sanitation with 144bn reais.

The peak of transport/logistics investments in the period, according to Abdib, should be 2027, with 48.3bn reais. 

The forecasts indicate constant growth in investments annually until 2027, when the figure is expected to start to decline until 2029.

Highways

In highways, Abdib says in its report that 2024 was "very busy" with several auctions held.

The association projects around 70bn reais in private investments in the next five years.

The projects include improvements, conservation, maintenance and operation of highways. Abdib also refers to potential streamlining of concession models.

“The transport ministry is studying a smart concession model for maintenance and improvements of highways, an important innovative solution for attracting private investment," Abdib says in the report. 

Railways

Deemed crucial for the energy transition due to its contribution to decarbonization of transport, the railway sector has 46.6bn reais in private investments committed until 2029, estimates Abdib.

In 2025, the expectation is for 7.6bn reais.

“It is also necessary to advance with the national railway plan being structured by the transport ministry, through which, according to initial information, some 200bn reais in investments are estimated," added the association.

Ports and airports

For ports and airports, Adbid forecasts private investment of 21.3bn reais and 9.5bn reais, respectively, in 2025-29.

In 2024-26, the government is expected to auction 40 port terminals, with investments exceeding 11bn reais.

For 2025, the entity also expects a series of auctions of regional airports, out of a portfolio 102 up for concession.

Urban mobility

In urban mobility, which encompasses metros and urban trains, Abdib says several projects have advanced, but concentrated in the southeast region of the country.

"It is essential that new projects are structured in the various regions, in the PPP and concession modalities," it said.

Overall, Abdib sees 26.9bn reais in private investments in urban mobility in the next five years, the bulk of which will be in São Paulo state.

Water and sanitation

The second largest sector by estimated investment, water and sanitation is poised to receive 24.7bn reais in private resources in 2025 alone.

The highlight of the sector in 2024 was the auction of a controlling stake in São Paulo state water utility Sabesp.

Also in 2024, two concessions were awarded for water utilities in northeast states Sergipe and Piauí, as well as Sanepar's second PPP in Paraná in Brazil's south.

“New auctions are planned for 2025, with emphasis on the projects in Pernambuco, Paraíba, Pará and Rondônia. For 2026, auctions are expected in Rio Grande do Norte, Goiás and Maranhão,” said Abdib.

Telecommunications

Investments in the telecommunications sector are already “100% private,” notes Abdib.

The association says “new investments are needed to meet the increase in traditional demand and that resulting from the use of data generated by artificial intelligence, augmented reality and the internet of things.”

For this year, Abdib projects sector investments will reach 43bn reais.

In 2023, the sector invested 35bn reais and in 2022, 38.1bn reais, according to private telcos association Conexis, which uses different data and metrics.

In the first half of 2024, according to Conexis, investments amounted to 15.8bn reais, flat year-on-year.

Details on other areas and Abdib's full Blue Book 2024 can be seen in the Documents box in the top-right corner of the screen.