Silver mine production expected to reach 7-year high in 2025

The Silver Institute forecasts global silver mine production will reach a seven-year high in 2025, rising by 2% to 844Moz.

The global silver supply is forecast to grow 3% this year to an 11-year high of 1.05Boz. However, according to the institute’s figures, the silver market will remain in deficit in 2025 for the fifth year, with global silver demand stable at 1.20Boz.

“Increased output is anticipated from both existing and new operations in several markets. In China, growth will come from base metal and gold operations, while in Canada and Chile, the ongoing ramp-up of Hecla’s Keno Hill and Gold Fields’ Salares Norte will contribute to rising output, respectively,” the think tank said in a report. “In Morocco, the ramp-up of Aya Gold and Silver’s Zgounder expansion to nameplate capacity will significantly add to production.”

Despite being the world's largest silver producer, Mexico is not mentioned in the report. In Mexico, the US$332mn Terronera project in Jalisco state, the US$27.5mn Tahuehueto in Durango and the US$950mn Media Luna in Guerrero will begin producing silver during the first half of the year.

“Byproduct silver from gold mines is expected to rise in 2025. In contrast, output from base metal mines will likely remain flat year-on-year. Base metal prices remain suppressed compared to the highs of 2021, and this poses a risk to production from lead-zinc mines,” the institute said.

The report said silver recycling is projected to increase 5% this year, with volumes exceeding 200Moz for the first time since 2012. This year, industrial scrap, particularly changeouts in ethylene oxide catalysts, will be the key growth driver, it said, adding that jewelry and silverware recycling will also rise, reflecting India’s price-led gains.

“The silver market is forecast to remain in a deficit in 2025 for the fifth year running. Although this year’s deficit is expected to fall by 19% to 149Moz, it is still sizeable historically,” the report states.

“Despite headwinds from a firmer dollar and Treasury yields, investor sentiment towards silver improved during early 2025. This largely reflects several macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, which have continued to underpin inflows into safe-haven assets such as silver and gold,” the report said. 

The institute said the recovery has been assisted by short covering by tactical investors in the futures market amid fears about Donald Trump’s tariff plans and a subsequent spike in futures and spot silver prices.

The report adds that uncertainty over US trade and foreign policy, record-high US equities, and worries about US public debt levels should reinforce interest in portfolio diversification, which will benefit silver and gold investments. “Moreover, even if the pace of US policy rate cuts slows in 2025, the consensus is still that they are coming. Coupled with sticky inflation, this points to potential declines in real rates ahead,” it states.