US oil sanctions mark 'end game' for Venezuela's Maduro
US sanctions on Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA are likely to be the "final straw" for the socialist regime of President Nicolás Maduro (pictured), according to a Capital Economics research note.
Washington on Monday blocked US$7bn of PDVSA assets in the US, a move expected to cost Venezuela US$11bn of lost export revenue in the next year.
The announcement came as the US and regional allies stepped up pressure on Maduro to cede power following an election last May that was widely deemed fraudulent. Last week the White House said it recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's interim leader pending new elections.
"The lost oil revenues could be the final straw," Capital Economics said on Tuesday. "With Maduro's ability to dispense patronage significantly hindered, he is likely to find it difficult to maintain the support of the top brass within PDVSA and the military. His inner circle could finally begin to splinter."
While Venezuela could seek to divert oil shipments to Turkey or India, any new export deals could take months to materialize, according to the London-based consultancy firm.
It added that China and Caribbean countries are unlikely to fill the void given that Venezuelan oil sent there is typically not exchanged for cash.
"Loans from China or Russia could help to tide the government over ... But the bigger picture here is that, regardless of how it happens, we are in the end game. History suggests that regime change is likely this year," Capital Economics said.
Meanwhile, Venezuela's chief prosecutor on Tuesday asked the Supreme Court to place a travel ban on Guaidó and ordered that his bank accounts be blocked.
In a televised address, attorney general Tarek Saab said he asked the court "to open a preliminary investigation into Guaidó as a result of diverse violent occurrences provoked in this country since January 22", the day after the 35-year-old swore himself in as president.
Guaidó responded by saying he would not be deterred by the threat of imprisonment.
"We are here, we will keep acting and working to confront the humanitarian crisis," he told a news conference in Caracas.
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