Venezuela regime change 'likely' despite Maduro defiance

The Venezuelan opposition's failed bid to assume power this week is unlikely to be the last attempt to oust Nicolás Maduro and regime change remains probable in the next two years, according to Oxford Economics.

National assembly leader Juan Guaidó tried to trigger a military rebellion on Wednesday, publishing a pre-dawn video with uniformed men and calling on Venezuelans to march in the streets as part of the "final phase" of a plan to topple Maduro.

But despite violent clashes between supporters of both sides in the past three days and hundreds of military defections, Maduro has remained unmoved. He claims to maintain the backing of the armed forces and on Friday called on soldiers to defeat "coup plotters.”

According to Oxford Economics, Venezuela's deepening economic crisis will erode any remaining institutional support for Maduro in the medium term, if not sooner.

"A rapid acceleration of the economic collapse following the US imposition of oil sanctions in January is underway and could result in additional defections from the regime," it said in a research note on Friday. "We therefore still think that regime change is likely in the next two years."

According to the UK-based consultancy firm, Venezuela’s imports dropped by 40% month-on-month in February, following new US oil sanctions in January. Meanwhile, crude exports fell by 29% in the first three months after the sanctions.

"If this dynamic continues, the economy is likely to shrink by 39% this year," Oxford said.

On Thursday, former Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo López said he expects the country’s military will eventually overthrow Maduro.

López has sought refuge in the Spanish embassy in Caracas after breaking house arrest earlier in the week. He said he was released by soldiers loyal to Guaidó, who is recognized by the US and more than 50 other countries as Venezuela's legitimate leader.