VP's jail sentence adds new twist to Ecuador's political split - analyst

Shortly after it was reported that Ecuadorian vice president Jorge Glas had been sentenced to six years in prison for his role in the Odebrecht bribery scandal, President Lenin Moreno reportedly said he was shocked by the corruption in the government of his predecessor, Rafael Correa.

"There has been galloping corruption, mainly in the last period of the previous government," Moreno was quoted as saying by Spanish daily ABC. "Unfortunately, it seems that, more than once, [former] president [Correa], turned a blind eye, because he wasn't thinking about the country, but about the next election," he added.

Moreno, who took office in May, ran as Correa's hand-picked successor, but only two months into his presidency he suspended Glas, who also served as vice president under Correa, triggering an internal split in his party, Alianza País.

Correa has been highly critical of Moreno's actions, going as far as calling him a traitor and calling for Alianza País to expel him from the party.

In this regard, Laura Sharkey, analyst at Political consultancy firm Control Risks for the Andean Region, told BNamericas that Glas' conviction represents a "boost for Moreno for the moment, since it will make the old regime look corrupt," adding that it will help the president distance himself further from the previous administration in the eyes of investors.

However, she warned that Correa "will do anything in his power to try to implicate Moreno" in the scandal, which could end up dividing the Alianza País party and stripping Moreno of his majority in congress.

In that scenario, Sharkey says that the president will likely turn to the opposition or other leftist parties to pass legislation, although "he might to have to moderate some legislation in order to get it passed," as most of the opposition is considered to be in the conservative spectrum.

ECONOMIC BOOST

Moreno is currently trying to attract foreign investments to Ecuador and distance himself from Correa's most populist policies, and he is planning a referendum to ask the public what they think about changing the constitution on various points.

"Moreno is not a right winger or centrist. He will try to move to the center to make the regulatory environment friendlier, but without alienating the Ecuadorian people," Sharkey said, adding that Moreno's proposed referendum includes provisions such as limiting mining operations in protected areas.

Another economic problem that Correa left for Moreno is the loans the former took from China when he was in office.

"Unfortunately Correa had a sort of mortgage policy with China, which was 'borrow now, worry about it later', and Moreno is worrying about it now, and so he is going to have to prioritize those payments while also attracting other investments, and the relationship with China will be really important. However, it won't put pressure in the economy and it may mean that he's unable to enact certain social benefits to the degree he would have liked," Sharkey says.