Why Lula’s solid approval ratings won’t impress congress

Although the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva administration is polling better than usual in times of economic hardship, its ratings are not high enough to dominate key negotiations with Brazil’s congress. 

A survey by CNT/MDA showed that 43% of respondents considered the administration good or excellent, 28% regular and 25% bad or very bad.

"Lula's approval rating can be considered positive, in the face of a still challenging economic scenario. But the fact is that Lula's popularity is still not great enough … to give him an advantage in future negotiations with congress to advance the administration’s agenda," André Pereira César, a political analyst at Hold Consultoria, told BNamericas.

Recognizing the importance of high popularity, the government pursues measures with public appeal.

"We are seeing the government taking measures to curb fuel prices and we likely see more government measures to further contain inflation, which has a quick and direct effect to help boost the government approval rating," Creomar de Souza, CEO of consulting firm Dharma Political Risk and Strategy, told BNamericas.

At a comparable point in his administration, Lula's predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, was viewed as good or excellent by 39% of respondents, regular by 29% and bad or very bad by 19%.

Yet, just after his first term started in March 2003, Lula was seen as good or excellent by 45% and by 50% in the early months of his second term, in 2007.

"Lula's third term is a completely different world from his previous terms. The political division in the country is much higher today and, in addition, there are figures in congress, such as lower house president Arthur Lira, with much political power, forcing Lula to be deeply engaged in negotiations," said César.

A major initiative pending in congress is a new fiscal framework, submitted by the government in April and aimed at replacing a spending limit and facilitate public investments. Lira expects a vote on the bill during this month. 

The government criticized the cap for limiting public investment ability. The cap was implemented in 2017 and limits the growth of public spending to the previous year’s inflation rate.

The proposal suggests limiting spending to 70% of the projected revenue increase for the current year, meaning the government still aims to grow spending at a lower pace than revenue.