Beware of wishful thinking

Those who are expecting a seismic shift in the Latin American political scene in 2016 may be sorely disappointed. Many have welcomed the results of recent elections in Argentina and Venezuela as heralding the end of the left-wing Bolivarian movement and a return to 'business as usual' in those countries, and at the same time quietly hope that the soft-left Brazilian leader Dilma Rousseff is on her way out via the impeachment proceedings she faces.

However, the scenario is rather more complex than that. Take Venezuela. Despite the crushing defeat of the ruling PSUV in December's congressional elections, President Nicolás Maduro and the "chavistas" are far from finished. To his credit, Maduro was quick to recognize the defeat, although he has also pledged to defend the socialist "revolution" started with his late predecessor Hugo Chávez.  The government needs to tread carefully and ensure the rights of the opposition members of congress are respected when they take their seats in January, and avoid any dirty tricks that could hinder the democratic process. 

Maduro, meanwhile, is not due to stand down until 2019, and a lot can change in the meantime. (Many have said the recent polls were the first time the chavistas have lost an election since taking power nearly 17 years ago, but we shouldn't forget that they lost a referendum in 2007 on constitutional changes only to quickly bounce back.) What is more, while the opposition MUD alliance won two-thirds of the seats, in terms of votes they won by a smaller majority - although admittedly still a substantial one at 56% to 41%, as the PSUV became a victim of its own gerrymandering that means the winner gains a disproportionate number of seats. It is also far from clear whether the notoriously factious, at least until the recent election, center-right movement will be able to agree on a single candidate for the next presidential ballot.      

On top of that, the opposition's supermajority – which allows it to remove supreme court judges, potentially cut short Maduro's term and, with the backing of a referendum, make constitutional changes – is wafer thin. It would only take one vote to overturn it. What the December election does do, however, is give the lie to the idea that Venezuela is a Marxist-Leninist state. Marxist-Leninist states don't have mid-term elections, they have dictatorships of the proletariat.

The prospects for change in Argentina next year may be greater, but a radical shake-up under new President Mauricio Macri is unlikely, not least because he does not enjoy a majority in congress. As for Rousseff, it appears improbable she will succumb to the wishes of those trying to see her impeached in what is increasingly unseemly squabbling among Brazil's political class amid graft scandals that so far have not involved the president directly.   

Neither is there much prospect of any sea change in other Bolivarian alliance countries such as Bolivia and Ecuador, which have fared much better under socialist governments than Venezuela in the last few years. And while US-Cuba relations have thawed, which Barack Obama evidently hopes will lead to political change in the island, that process is likely to be long and arduous, not to say uncertain.

So without wishing to be a harbinger of gloom for those who believe the recent elections mark the beginning of the end for the left in Latin America, perhaps now is the time to rethink expectations for 2016.