Brazilian protests: Is China next?

Although Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has since announced plans to improve health services, public transportation and education, and offered to call a referendum that could lead to political reforms, the initial response of her government to those taking part in the wave of protests shaking the country in recent weeks was patronizing to say the least. She effectively said we're in a democracy so you have the right to protest peacefully, as if the demonstrators should be grateful that Brazil is no longer a military dictatorship.

Whether the measures, which also include pledges to create more jobs and fight corruption, will satisfy the protesters' demands is yet to be seen, but judging by initial reaction it seems unlikely. The proposals have already been criticized as vague, and the protests have continued, albeit on a smaller scale. What exactly the protesters' demands are, however, remains unclear. They are calling for a raft of changes, but are short on specifics - among the demands are cheaper/free public transport (a hike in São Paulo fares, since withdrawn, sparked the demonstrations), better education, less corruption (Rousseff has actually taken a relatively hard line on this issue in the past), less spending on the FIFA World Cup (much of which is on infrastructure and telecommunications that takes time to bear fruit), jobs, better healthcare, a cleaner environment, less inequality, greater representation, political reforms, an end to capitalism, and more.

One thing is clear, however, the events in Brazil cannot be seen in isolation, and are part of an anti-system phenomenon witnessed in dozens of countries in the last couple of years, such as recently in Turkey (where the government's response, in contrast to Rousseff's, was to crack down hard), Spain (los indignados), Russia, India, Indonesia and South Africa, and that's not to mention the Arab Spring and the Occupy movement. In many cases, the protests appear to be spontaneous and from below, with no obvious leaders, and spread using social media and mobile phones.

While the circumstances in each country are very different, and it's dangerous to generalize, one factor that has played an important role in most of these demonstrations is the rising middle class, especially in emerging markets. Despite its economic success in recent years, as evidenced by the fall in poverty, Brazil has not done enough to satisfy the underlying aspirations of this middle class, especially its younger members, and that's beginning to show. In the last decade or so, the middle class in Brazil, as measured by socio-economic group C, has doubled, as groups D and E have halved.

The question is, who's next? Maybe Mexico. Or could it be China? The Asian giant is facing a similar situation, a rising middle class that sooner or later will demand widespread political reform. For as long as the economy is booming (and it still is, despite all the talk of a slowdown), those making millions at the top and the party elite will thrive, while the vast majority will see their lot improve sufficiently to assuage unrest (although China has seen many low key protests, mainly over labor and economic issues as well as health and food safety concerns, along with ethnic conflicts). But as the educated, middle class grows, demands for political reforms will inevitably come to the fore, as we're seeing now in Hong Kong, along with the potential for instability that could bring. This in turn could seriously impact those countries whose economies depend on China, such as Latin American commodity exporters. And expand the middle class is exactly what the Chinese authorities are trying to do, as the country moves away from a heavily export-focused economy to a model more based on internal demand.

So the paradox is that as countries like Brazil and China expand economically, and manage to bring more people out of poverty, the potential for unrest is greater, not less, unless political and social reforms keep up with growth. One difference with Brazil, of course, is that in China the protests won't even be allowed, peaceful or otherwise.