Cuba post-Fidel: The end of an era, or the start of a new one?

Whatever one thought of his politics, or his ideology, there is no denying Fidel Castro had an enormous influence on Latin America for more than 50 years up until his death on Friday, and inspired millions of people in the region and around the world.

Here was the revolutionary who led a classic guerrilla war and overthrew the decadent, corrupt and organized crime-ridden regime of Fulgencio Batista. Here was the man who stood up to the mighty, Batista-backing United States, defying the capitalist world, all in the name of the people. Here was the David who took on Goliath, whose response was a botched invasion, numerous assassination attempts and a trade embargo.

Fidel (I refer to him by his first name to distinguish him from Cuba's current leader, his brother Raúl) transformed the island from a US playground riddled with poverty and vast inequality into a socialist state that had enviable health and educational standards and a rate of child mortality comparable to that of the industrialized nations.

Yet he failed – he never actually tried – to bring democracy to Cuba, locked up dissidents, and rode roughshod over people's human rights (although nothing like on the scale of the military regimes in South America during much of his time in power). And with the collapse of his ally and benefactor the Soviet Union, he presided over a ruined economy.

Of course, every dictatorship, from Chile's Pinochet to Ghaddafi's Libya and Saddam's Iraq, does some positive things, but the positives never justify the abuses, the rights violations and the atrocities. Cuba is no exception. But love him or loathe him, the question now is, what happens next?   

With Fidel gone, there opens up a significant opportunity to extend and strengthen the reforms that Raúl has introduced in recent years. How far the old guard are prepared to go in the absence of the almost mythical Fidel is not easy to say, but one thing is for sure – much depends on the attitude of Donald Trump. If he continues the process started by Barack Obama of bringing Cuba in from the cold, the economy will eventually open up, creating multiple business opportunities for companies in the US and beyond, and the chances are political reforms will follow sooner or later (although as the examples of China and Vietnam show, that's not necessarily the case).  

Trump has faced, and certainly will face much more criticism for the conflicts of interest between his vast business empire and his role as future president of the United States. But maybe if Trump bears in mind the potential investment prospects in Cuba for his hotels, resorts, golf courses, casinos etc, he may adopt a conciliatory approach. The hope is, Cuba does not return to the iniquitous days of Batista as a result.