OPINION: The Cuba-Iran policy link

Despite the obvious differences, there are some striking similarities in US President Barack Obama's recent foreign policy 'wins' regarding Iran and Cuba.

Restoring full diplomatic relations with Havana after five decades of enmity, and pledging to work to lift the trade embargo, may seem small fry in global geopolitical terms, but the move marks a decisive turn in relations not just with the Caribbean island but with the whole of Latin America. And striking a deal on nuclear cooperation with Iran, while in itself significant in that it represents a new approach to the Islamic republic 36 years after the overthrow of the Shah, also amounts to – if not exactly a seismic shift – a breath of fresh air in Washington's dealings with the Middle East.

The two cases, despite appearing to be as alike as chalk and cheese, represent a fundamentally pragmatic change of direction. The Obama administration is in no way condoning the regimes in Cuba and Iran, but is accepting their reality and recognizing that trying to punish or force into submission one's ideological foes simply isn't going to work.

In the case of Iran, the logic is quite clear: these guys may be a nasty piece of work but we're all better off if they don't have nuclear weapons (although the US president's claim that it was a question of choosing between diplomacy and going to war may be somewhat exaggerated). Like every country, Iran has the right to diversify its energy sources. No nation should be overly dependent on a single commodity, something that is particularly poignant in light of the oil price collapse that has hurt oil-dependent economies like Venezuela's. And it's not just prices – energy security necessitates diversity, something that Brazil and others have paid heavily for in the past by being too dependent on hydropower and then being afflicted by drought.

In the case of Cuba, it's the acceptance that the embargo and previous administrations' attempts to topple the Castro regime have failed, so it's better to foment change by bringing Havana into the fold.

So while Obama may have disappointed many with his lack of progress on major foreign policy issues, not least in resolving the Palestinian issue, he can claim to have scored success in these two cases, and it seems highly unlikely that the US congress will reverse either process. In fact, lifting the embargo seems to have popular support in the US. 

Cuba, in the meantime, argues that relations with Washington will not return to normal until sanctions are completely ended and the US gives back the Guantánamo base, and in the past has demanded compensation for the effects of what it calls the blockade. Handing Guantánamo back to Cuba would have provided Obama with an opportunity to fulfill his campaign pledge to close the detention camp; although being realistic, that demand is not even remotely likely to be met. As regards compensation for the embargo, there is about as much chance as Greece winning additional wartime reparations from Germany.