The end of the age of reason?

Analysts, commentators and 'experts' are projecting left, right and center what we can expect under the Donald Trump administration, using all very well-reasoned and logical arguments. What can Latin America expect? Mexico's economy could be in serious trouble if Trump can entice US car manufacturers, or others wishing to sell vehicles north of the border, to pull out of the country. Mexico and Central America can expect to be obliged to receive millions of undocumented migrants as Trump builds his promised wall (ironically, as former president Felipe Calderón pointed out, destroying jobs in Mexico will just result in more migrants crossing the Río Bravo/Grande). The west coast nations of the continent, meanwhile, can kiss goodbye to any hopes of the Trans Pacific Partnership materializing. Cuba can anticipate a new deep freeze in relations with Washington, etc.

The only problem is reasoned analysis, logic and sensible arguments – as seen by the US election campaign as well as by Brexit, the Italian referendum, the Colombia peace deal plebiscite and others – just don't come into it. The truth is, no one knows what Trump intends to do after he is sworn into office this Friday. His multiple self-contradictions, inconsistencies (not least between him and his cabinet nominees) and muddled thinking leave the average rational human being, as the British say, gobsmacked.

The curious thing is that all this uncertainty hasn't hurt the markets, We're constantly told the one thing the markets don't like is uncertainty, but since the election in November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen nearly 10%. The US dollar has gained value against the euro and other major currencies. Investors seem to be lining up to pour money into the US. Despite all the about turns, lack of clarity – and let's call a spade a spade – utter confusion that emanates from Trump and his incessant tweets, he has given the lie to the myth that uncertainty is bad for business. How many times have we heard the argument about the importance of not changing the rules, which is often a red herring to hinder much-needed progress? Well, Trump has just torn up the rule book and the business world seems to be loving it.

So until we have a degree of clarity – if we ever will have with Trump – rational analysis is not going to make much headway. Maybe his ranting and raving, his bullying and boasting, is, as he would put it, just "locker room talk."  In the meantime, let's give the man the benefit of the doubt. After all, doubt is one thing that's not in short supply right now.