The Santos dilemma

It's almost a year since the Colombian government and the FARC rebel group began formal peace talks to end Latin America's longest-running insurgency, and that's how long President Juan Manuel Santos gave the process to achieve a result.

Yet, progress has been painfully slow and modest, with perhaps the biggest achievement so far being a preliminary agreement on land reform.

So Mr Santos now faces a dilemma. Does he backtrack and allow more time for the peace process, or does he pull the plug on it and cut his losses? He was clearly betting considerable political capital on what would be a remarkable achievement, to bring peace to Colombia for the first time in five decades, and use this to ensure his reelection in May next year.

Now, with the talks in Havana dragging on, Santos' popularity ratings have plunged. While the failure to strike a deal with the FARC is only one factor involved in his waning support, if he could pull off a wide ranging agreement Santos' chances of a second term in office would be given a tremendous boost. As it is, he seems to be in two minds about even whether to stand.

What is more, the FARC have bent over backwards to give the impression, through media interviews and so on, that they are the ones being reasonable and flexible, while it's the government side that's being intransigent. The group has committed, for example, to full investigations of abuses on both sides during the conflict, and as what they called a gesture of good faith at the start of the talks, claimed (some may say rather dubiously) to have halted economically motivated kidnappings and released what they refer to as their prisoners of war. They've even offered to release US Marine veteran Kevin Scott Sutay, handing him over to the International Red Cross with no reward to be paid, and have blamed Santos for blocking the mediation efforts of Rev Jesse Jackson.

The end result is that if Santos aborts the peace talks, in the eyes of many he will be seen as the one responsible for their collapse, while the FARC will score a propaganda coup, further damaging his reelection hopes.

Yet, this is far more important than an election or Santos' future in politics. The insurgency involving the FARC and other guerrilla groups (or terrorists, if you prefer) has claimed the lives of an estimated 200,000 people while millions have been displaced, and has caused untold economic damage and instability in Colombia and the region. The talks may not have produced the desired outcome so far, but for as long as there is any reasonable chance of success, the peace process should be allowed to continue. That issue transcends any short-term political consideration. However much, or little, the FARC can be trusted, there is still hope, although a president other than Santos is less likely to be willing to sit down and talk to the guerrillas.